2025 Golden Globes Nominations Insights: Implications for the Oscars Race in Each Category

The 2025 Golden Globes nominations have set the stage for an intriguing awards season, particularly impacting the race for the 2025 Oscars in major categories like Best Picture. Despite ongoing debates regarding their significance, the Golden Globes remain a critical component of the awards circuit. This year’s nominations, notably led by Emilia Pérez with ten nods, offer valuable insights into the forthcoming Oscar contenders.

Although the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards operate under different voting systems, categories, and guidelines, historical correlations suggest that the former often foreshadows outcomes at the latter. Over the past 15 years, there has been a notable pattern linking the two—specifically, Golden Globe nominees often emerge as strong contenders for Oscar nominations, particularly in prestigious categories such as Best Picture and Best Director.

Implications of the Golden Globes Nominations on the 2025 Oscars Best Picture Race

Challenges for Gladiator II and Ascendance of Emilia Pérez and Wicked

The Golden Globes categorize Best Motion Picture into two distinct segments: Drama and Musical/Comedy. This year’s nominees feature titles such as The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Dune: Part Two competing in the Drama category, while Emilia Pérez and Wicked headline the Musical/Comedy list. With only ten Best Picture nominations available at the Oscars, it is anticipated that several films from the Golden Globes will ultimately not make the cut, following historical trends that often show divergence between the two award events.

Over the past 15 years, only once have all nominees for Best Picture at the Oscars also been Golden Globe nominees; this occurred last year. It is common for the Academy to include films not represented among the Golden Globes, particularly foreign language entries. For instance, the acclaimed Parasite won Best Picture despite lacking a nomination in any Golden Globe category.

Among the twelve films recognized by the Golden Globes this year, titles like Challengers and The Substance are likely to miss out on an Oscar nomination. Other potential exclusions include September 5, A Real Pain, and Dune: Part Two. Frontrunners such as Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez have strengthened their standing significantly as a result of these nominations.

Arguably, Emilia Pérez emerges as the leading contender, boasting the most Golden Globe nominations of any film this awards season. Given its momentum, if it clinches the award for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, it could position itself as a front-runner for the overall Best Picture accolade—something Netflix has been pursuing for years.

Conversely, Gladiator II faces a looming challenge—its absence from the Golden Globe nominations may jeopardize its Best Picture prospects. This void leaves room for blockbusters like Wicked and Dune: Part Two to potentially dominate in the Best Picture category.

Impact of the Golden Globes Nominations on the 2025 Oscars Best Director Race

Denis Villeneuve’s Snub: A Significant Oversight

The nominees for Best Director at the Golden Globes this year include Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Bradey Corbet (The Brutalist), Corealie Fargeat (The Substance), and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light). While the Golden Globes allow for six nominees in this category, the Oscars limit it to five, leading to potential overlaps and exclusions. Historically, only once in the past 15 years have all Best Director Oscar nominees also been Globes nominees, which presents interesting opportunities for potential surprises.

Given this scenario, directors Audiard, Baker, Berger, and Corbet stand in a strong position for Oscar nominations, with at least one likely to secure a win, as the Best Director winner has been a Golden Globe nominee in each of the last 15 years. The nominations for Fargeat and Kapadia, though unexpected, add intrigue, even if they remain long shots.

With the likelihood of at least one Best Director nominee missing from the Golden Globe roster, directors like Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) and Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) are still in contention. However, Villeneuve’s exclusion from the Golden Globes raises alarm bells, given his previous nomination for the first Dune film, suggesting the need for a recovery to secure his place in this year’s Oscar race.

Insights into Best Actor for the 2025 Oscars Following the Golden Globes Nominations

Solidifying the Competitive Best Actor Landscape

Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence in Conclave

The Golden Globes have once again divided their Best Actor nominations by genre, showcasing a star-studded lineup with six contenders in each category. Among the Drama nominees are Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). The musical/comedy segment includes Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel Labelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man).

While several surprises have emerged, the nominations reaffirm the status of Brody, Chalamet, Craig, Domingo, and Fiennes as the leading contenders. However, historical trends indicate that only eight of the last 15 years resulted in all five Best Actor Oscar nominees mirroring the Golden Globe choices, suggesting that alternate contenders like John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) may yet break into the fray.

Dual nominations have enhanced Sebastian Stan’s chances, although he must surpass one of the leading five to secure a place among the Oscar nominees. History supports his position, as the Best Actor winner at the Oscars typically aligns with the Golden Globe champion, with only Michael Keaton’s win for Birdman standing out as an exception. Thus, contenders such as Brody, Chalamet, Craig, Domingo, Fiennes, and Stan are well-positioned for the upcoming awards.

Reflections on the Best Actress Category Following the Golden Globes Nominations

Cynthia Erivo and Nicole Kidman Gain Momentum Towards Oscar Nominations

Similar to the Best Actor category, the Golden Globes nominated six actresses for the Best Actress category, divided by genre. Nominees in Drama include Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee), while Musical/Comedy nominees include Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Zendaya (Challengers).

Historically, the Golden Globes serve as reliable indicators for Best Actress Oscar nominations. In the past 15 years, Oscar nominees have aligned with Globe contenders in eight instances. Therefore, this bolsters the chances for nominees like Jolie, Madison, and Gascón in this year’s race. Importantly, every Best Actress winner in the last 15 years has been a Golden Globe nominee, suggesting a similar trend could emerge this season.

The Golden Globe nominations bode well for rising stars in the Best Actress race, specifically Erivo and Kidman. Notably, Kidman could elevate her chances if she secures a win for Best Actress – Motion Picture Drama at the Golden Globes. Although the Oscars typically favor Drama nominees over Musical/Comedy entries, several actresses such as Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness), or Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) could still receive nominations despite lacking Golden Globe recognition.

Impact of Golden Globes Nominations on the 2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Race

Denzel Washington Maintains Strong Position in Best Supporting Actor

This year’s Golden Globes featured six nominees for Best Supporting Actor. The nominees are Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Historically, a strong disconnect exists between the nominees selected for the Golden Globes and the Oscars; in the last 15 years, the two aligned only three times.

This historical trend suggests that at least one of the Golden Globe nominees will be excluded from the Oscar shortlist. Clarence Maclin’s performance in Sing Sing emerges as a potential Oscar dark horse, making him a strong candidate to take one of the places that might otherwise go to a Globe nominee. Therefore, it is anticipated that at least two names from this list may not appear among the final Oscar nominations.

Among this group, Culkin and Washington appear best positioned to secure Oscar nominations, as both are regarded as potential frontrunners for the win. Norton, Pearce, and Borisov also have intriguing prospects due to their associations with highly regarded films likely to vie for Best Picture. However, any of them, plus Strong, could be displaced if Maclin gains momentum. Ultimately, the dynamic of the Best Supporting Actor race may continue to evolve in the run-up to the Oscars.

Golden Globes Nominations Influence on the 2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actress Race

Ariana Grande’s Oscar Chances Brighten

Ariana Grande in Wicked — Image via Universal Pictures

The Golden Globes nominations for Best Supporting Actress featured six standout performances. Nominees include Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). Many of these actresses were anticipated contenders for the Oscars as well.

The essential question remains: which of these six actresses will make it into the five finalists for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar? Historically, only twice have all nominees aligned with the Globes, and this has not occurred since 2017. It’s common for one or more actresses to receive an Oscar nod despite being overlooked by the Golden Globes. Notable potential nominees include Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), circling back to the likelihood that some Globe nominees could be passed over.

Currently, Saldaña and Grande are leading the pack for Oscar nominations, particularly with Grande’s portrayal of Glinda in Wicked garnering acclaim. Gomez, Jones, and Rossellini all have prior recognition in the race, with Gómez drawing mixed reactions among critics. Although Qualley’s nomination is well-deserved, surprises in the nominations could still occur, leaving her, and possibly Gomez, on the outside looking in for Oscar recognition. Rossellini may also find herself displaced if other performances gain the momentum needed for a nomination.

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