2025 Oscars Best Actress Predictions: Expected Nominees and Potential Winner

The Competitive Landscape for Best Actress at the Oscars 2025

The race for the Best Actress award at the 2025 Oscars is shaping up to be fiercely competitive. A mix of previous winners, past nominees, and promising newcomers are vying for one of the coveted five nominations. The previous awards season saw Emma Stone’s unexpected win over favored contender Lily Gladstone, setting the stage for another intriguing showdown in 2025. This year’s contenders for the Best Actress category are anticipated to parallel the Best Picture nominees, despite male-led films likely dominating the overall field.

Currently, some of the actresses in contention have leading roles in films that may not make it to the Best Picture category. This scenario places them in a uniquely different competition compared to their male counterparts for the Best Actor nominations. Interestingly, two former Oscar winners are set to compete against each other in the same film, intensifying the race. With the nomination announcements scheduled for January 17, 2025, let’s explore the leading contenders for the Best Actress nomination.

Actress	Movie
1	Angelina Jolie	Maria
2	Mikey Madison	Anora
3	Nicole Kidman	Babygirl
4	Karla Sofia Gascon	Emilia Perez
5	Cynthia Erivo	Wicked

Additional Contenders for the Oscars 2025 Best Actress

Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door

While the main nominees are generating a buzz, several other actresses remain formidable contenders for the Best Actress nomination. Notably, Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore are the leads in Pedro Almodóvar’s film, The Room Next Door. Sony Pictures Classics has chosen to campaign both actresses in the Best Actress category rather than splitting their efforts with one in Best Supporting Actress. At this moment, Swinton appears to have a stronger chance of receiving a nomination, having already secured a Golden Globe nod.

Although Tilda Swinton has yet to receive a Best Actress nomination, she previously won for Best Supporting Actress in 2007. Conversely, Julianne Moore, a prior Best Actress winner, aims to add to her accolade collection since her last win in 2014.

Meanwhile, the momentum has dipped for Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), both of whom were earlier considered contenders. While their performances merit recognition, neither has garnered sufficient backing in a year filled with outstanding talent. Demi Moore (The Substance) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are poised as next-level contenders who could ascend into nominations should other campaigns falter.

Several standout performances may be left out in the cold for this year’s Oscars. Last year’s winner, Emma Stone, seems unlikely to nab another nomination for Kinds of Kindness, while fellow nominees Amy Adams (Nightbitch) and Florence Pugh (We Live In Time) are struggling to launch impactful campaigns, although Adams has received a Golden Globe nomination. Kate Winslet’s role in Lee could also yield an unexpected nomination on announcement day.

5 Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

A Previous Best Actress Nominee

Cynthia Erivo’s performance as Elphaba in the much-anticipated musical Wicked is a strong contender this awards season. Despite entering as a relatively under-the-radar candidate, Erivo’s accolades from her earlier nomination for Harriet have set a precedent. Given the film’s growing popularity, a nomination for Erivo might be on the horizon.

Interestingly, Erivo’s last Oscar nomination for Harriet was overshadowed by a musical performance, with Renée Zellweger taking home the award for Judy. If Erivo secures a nomination, she’ll join a prestigious list of actresses who have received accolades for leading roles in musicals, alongside past winners such as Renée Zellweger and Emma Stone.

The quality of her performance in Wicked has enhanced her chances, particularly as musical films have historically resonated with Academy voters. With significant buzz from the Golden Globes and critics groups, along with its box office success, Erivo’s position seems fortified.

4 Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

A Standout in a Best Picture Candidate

Karla Sofía Gascón is establishing herself as a leading contender for the Best Actress nomination with her role in Emilia Pérez. Although her co-stars Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez have broader name recognition, Gascón delivers a powerful performance as the title character. The film’s status as a potential Best Picture nominee, combined with Gascón’s connection to its trans narrative, boosts her chances remarkably.

A nomination for Gascón would hold historic significance, potentially marking the first time an openly trans actress has been outlined for such an honor. While Elliot Page received a nomination before transitioning, Gascón’s nomination would reflect the Academy’s evolving recognition of diverse talent within the LGBTQ+ community.

With the Cannes Film Festival Best Actress award shared among her and her co-stars, interest surrounding Gascón is evident. The decision to position her in Best Actress, while others aim for Best Supporting Actress, provides a pathway for heightened visibility in the upcoming awards cycles, particularly with a Golden Globe nomination in hand.

3 Nicole Kidman – Babygirl

Kidman Reclaims Her Place in the Race

Nicole Kidman returns to the Oscars race with her role in Babygirl, playing a CEO involved in a complex relationship. As someone with previous nominations and a memorable win, Kidman brings significant acclaim to this erotic thriller, a genre not typically associated with Oscar nominations. However, her established reputation can elevate the project, even ahead of its full theatrical release this Christmas.

A fifth nomination would not only accentuate Kidman’s storied career but also mark her sixth overall nomination, drawing upon a win for The Hours back in 2003. Having last garnered buzz for Being the Ricardos, the 2022 ceremony saw her narrowly miss another award to Jessica Chastain. With over two decades since her last win, Kidman’s critical acclaim in Babygirl could mark a triumphant return to the podium.

Her chances have been buoyed by recent Golden Globe nominations as well as accolades from the National Board of Review and Venice Film Festival, where she was recognized for Best Actress. If she maintains her current trajectory, Kidman could potentially be crowned a two-time Best Actress winner, joining an elite group of only 15 actresses who have achieved that distinction.

2 Mikey Madison – Anora

A Breakthrough Performance on the Horizon

Mikey Madison is rapidly emerging as a strong contender for the Best Actress award thanks to her leading role in Anora. While she may not have the illustrious trajectory of other nominees like Saoirse Ronan, Madison’s portrayal in a film considered a frontrunner for Best Picture positions her favorably.

Madison’s rise has been notable, with her previous work alongside industry giants like Quentin Tarantino and her part in the Scream series setting the stage for her current role in a Sean Baker project that delves into the complexities of love and marriage in the context of a stripper’s life.

The promising trajectory of Anora as a potential Best Picture winner enhances Madison’s visibility, thus improving her nomination probabilities. While it’s almost a given that she will receive a nomination, her chances of taking home the statue remain somewhat uncertain. If victorious, she would be among the youngest actresses to win the Best Actress award, a fact that could sway Oscar voters toward more seasoned candidates.

1 Angelina Jolie – Maria

Aiming for Her Second Oscar

Angelina Jolie stands as a leading contender for the Best Actress award in 2025, largely due to her portrayal in Maria, a biopic about famed soprano Maria Callas directed by Pablo Larraín. The Academy often recognizes performances in biographical films, and Jolie’s transformative representation of Callas has garnered critical acclaim.

This nomination would mark Jolie’s third Oscar nomination and her first in 15 years, as she has not been in the running since Changeling in 2009. Previously, she won the Best Supporting Actress award in 2000 for Girl, Interrupted. With limited opportunities for recognition over the past two decades, Jolie’s performance in Maria has sparked renewed interest.

Notably, Oscar voters have recently shown a preference for lead actresses in Larraín’s films, evidenced by nominations for Kristen Stewart in Spencer (2022) and Natalie Portman in Jackie (2017). While those actresses did not take home the award, Jolie could break this trend. Given that her portrayal in Maria is her best shot for a nomination at the 2025 Oscars, any unexpected shifts may significantly influence the outcome.

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