Angelina Jolie’s Oscar Chances After ‘Maria’ Releases on Netflix: Will She Finally Become Best Actress?

After generating significant Oscar buzz, Angelina Jolie is now streaming on Netflix in the highly anticipated film Maria. This biopic, directed by Pablo Larraín, continues his exploration of iconic women, following his previous accolades for Jackie and Spencer. In this latest installment, Jolie portrays the legendary opera singer Maria Callas, with Haluk Bilginer and Caspar Phillipson portraying Aristotle Onassis and John F. Kennedy, respectively. Following the release of the film’s trailer in September, fans have been waiting eagerly for its arrival on Netflix.

Premiering at the 81st Venice International Film Festival this year, Maria garnered a wave of positive reviews, with critics particularly lauding Jolie’s riveting performance. The film had its theatrical release in select U.S. cinemas on November 27, and is now available for streaming, broadening its audience significantly. The uptick in viewership is likely to amplify the Oscar campaign supporting her performance. However, what are Jolie’s actual chances of securing the Best Actress award this year?

Angelina Jolie: A Contender for Best Actress, But Not the Frontrunner

Mikey Madison Leads the Pack for 2025 Best Actress Favorites

Jolie is widely predicted to receive a nomination for the Best Actress category, yet she currently trails behind in the odds to win. According to GoldDerby, which tracks Oscar predictions, Mikey Madison is favored for her compelling role as a sex worker in Sean Baker’s acclaimed film Anora, boasting odds of 19/5. Jolie follows closely with odds of 9/2 for her performance in Maria.

Actor	Movie	Odds of Best Actress Nomination
Mikey Madison	Anora	19/5
Angelina Jolie	Maria	9/2
Karla Sofia Gascon	Emilia Perez	5/1
Nicole Kidman	Babygirl	8/1
Cynthia Erivo	Wicked	10/1

In the same context, Karla Sofía Gascón holds 5/1 odds for her role in Emilia Pérez, while Nicole Kidman is listed at 8/1 for Babygirl, and Cynthia Erivo at 10/1 for her performance in Wicked. Although Jolie ranks above these actresses, she is still not the leading choice compared to Madison.

The Impact of Maria‘s Netflix Release on Her Oscar Chances

Expanded Access with Netflix for Maria

Until recently, Jolie’s performance in Maria was only viewable by industry insiders and select audiences in limited theaters. With the film now streaming on Netflix, it opens the door for a broader audience to engage with her work. Historically, Netflix releases, like Marriage Story, May December, and The Power of the Dog, have seen similar surges in visibility leading up to awards season.

As more everyday viewers discover Jolie’s performance and share their opinions online, the buzz surrounding her Oscar candidacy is expected to grow. With Jolie’s star power and the nostalgic draw for her fans, the excitement surrounding her potential nomination could reach new heights.

Angelina Jolie’s Oscar Legacy: Implications for the 2025 Best Actress Contest

Legacy Considerations: Jolie’s Oscar Journey

Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas in Maria (6)

While Mikey Madison and Karla Sofía Gascón are newcomers to the Oscars conversation, Angelina Jolie brings substantial history to the table. In contrast, Cynthia Erivo has already earned a nomination for Harriet, and Nicole Kidman has four Best Actress nominations to her name, with a Best Supporting Actress win for The Hours. Although Jolie has an impressive filmography, she has only won an Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress, competing against legends such as Toni Collette and Catherine Keener.

As the Oscars approach, this legacy may play a pivotal role in the discussion surrounding Jolie’s candidacy, a factor that cannot be overlooked.

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